Egat warns of more blackouts

       Thailand may face more frequent power blackouts next year as electricity demand rises with the economic recovery, says a senior executive of the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (Egat).
       Sutat Patmasiriwat, Egat's deputy governor for power generation, said the country may face a risk of natural gas shortages as industrial activity rises in response to the improving economy,resulting in higher power demand.
       In the past month, the country has faced shortages of natural gas, which represents 70% of total fuel use in generating power. The need to use more hydroelectric power after gas pipelines were disrupted has cost Egat about 1 billion baht.
       The incidents not only caused damage to Egat but they also reflected a poor policy that placed too much reliance on natural gas, Mr Sutat.
       Even though reserved power is as high as 25% of normal demand, the risks of blackouts persist since the country may face shortages of some fuels to generate power at certain times.
       Egat is preparing to improve the early warning system at its power plants across the country to one day from three days.
       "Although new capacity from the Nam Theun 2 hydropower plant in Laos will start operating in November, the 920-Megawatt generator can secure power output only for the northeastern region, but the western and southern regions, where we had trouble lately,still need to be managed carefully as there is no new capacity there," said Mr Sutat.
       Including the capacity from Nam Theun 2, the northeastern provinces would have nearly 2,000 MW of electricity available, equal to demand.
       "We have no other choices so far, if the gas supply falls short again, other than increasing hydropower output and using fuel-oil instead, which costs us more than three to five baht per kilowatt/hour (unit)," he said."In case there is not enough [to serve demand] we will need to use diesel which costs seven to eight baht per unit compared with the normal rate of two baht per unit for gasfired power plants."
       Mr Sutat added that the state utility would also have a higher financial burden resulting from the government's power price subsidies that run until July next year, since the fixed rate for the fuel tariff (Ft) was based on US$40 per barrel of crude compared with the current price of $70.
       "Our job will be harder next year as crude oil would likely rise above $80,"said Mr Sutat.
       Egat has shouldered a burden from the government's Ft subsidy totalling 20 billion baht and it would rise to 30 billion baht until the end of subsidy programme, he said.