Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Way out of line

       Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva announced that he expects third generation phone service before New Year's Eve; he then announced why there probably won't be any; in a speech to mark the fifth anniversary of the Magnificent Seven National Telecommunications Commission, Mr Abhisit set out the conflicting criteria he expects to see in Asia's last, most dysfunctional 3G campaign: service before the end of the year after fair bandwidth auctions that favour small Thai telecom operators;on one hand,"3G services can no longer be postponed," he insisted, but on the other, the NTC must bias bidding to favour a more competitive structure;the English translation of this speech:DTAC of Norway and AIS of Shingapore have way too much market power now and 3G contracts must show that.
       Information and Communications Technology Minister explained that Mr Abhisit was way out of line in calling for 3G phone service in Thailand by the end of the year; the highly dynamic Ranongruk Suwunchwee said that the auction for 3G service should be postponed indefinitely, but certainly until at least 2010; the minister patiently diagrammed the truth for Mr Abhisit,showing that any auction before next year would favour "foreign players"(translation:DTAC of Norway and AIS of Shingapore) while dealing setbacks to the telecoms duopoly of your TOT and your CAT Telecom ; after hearing the minister's clear (as always) and expert (as always) statement, Mr Abhisit said,"I have sympathy for the NTC in carrying out this complicated work,"and went back to his office.
       Speaking of foreign companies, the Japanese Internet firm Rakuten bought a controlling 67 percent of Thailand's largest e-commerce portal; the online shopping service TARAD.Com , which claims to have 2 million users buying 1.4 million items from 160,000 merchants, will be directly controlled by three senior Rakuten executives to be flown in for the jobs; it's all about the scale - Rakuten.co.jp has 60 million users able to buy 40 million products from 30,000 merchants; executives of Tarad.com and Rakuten were so excited they forgot to mention the sale price.
       The cabinet took a quick look, guffawed and quickly waved away a dis-tasteful proposal by the Commerce Minister to fine and arrest people who buy pirated songs, movies, software, etc;Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva spoke up and said it was a dreadful idea, probably illegal and fraught with the danger that most arrested people would simply sue the police back; Commerce Minister Porntiva Nakasai and deputy Alongkorn Ponlaboot apparently got caught up in the spirit of taking draconian action to stamp out piracy; but the bill will probably come back to cabinet with one key point still in it: punishment for store or mall owners who allow their premises to be used to sell pirated or counterfeit goods, which seems an equally iffy accusation.
       Finally, you can buy a Kindle e-book reader for a mere $279 that will download all the k3w1 books and newspapers (and charge your credit card) from Amazon.com that works (or soon will,says Amazon) on the Edge/GPRS networks in Thailand -9,600 baht in real money.
       Sixty four percent of Thais favour nuclear energy but 66 percent insist they be in other Thais' provinces; that was the result of a poll on nuclear energy conducted on behalf of the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand ; Egat has hired a consulting firm to conduct studies on plants currently planned to be opened starting in 2020; deputy governor Somboon Arayasakul lauded alternative energy projects throughout the country but said there was no way they would supply enough electricity;Egat has carefully refrained from specifying any province or site as its preferred spot for the first plant.
       Marine scientist Suchana Chavanich left on a four-month trip to study the impact of climate change in Antarctica;the 37-year-old Chulalongkorn University lecturer was chosen as part of the Japanese Antarctic Research Expedition.

IS THAILAND HEADING FOR A NUCLEAR FUTURE?

       The demand for electricity keeps rising,but consumer savings and domestic solar power generation may help considerably By Nina Suebsukcharoen
       While Thailand is pushing ahead with plans to build two nuclear power plants, energy policymakers are not overlooking other choices,including solar power, and are encouraging consumers to embrace conservation, says Direk Lavansiri, chairman of the Energy Regulatory Commission.
       It could take up to 10 years before work starts on the nuclear plants, assuming they win government approval and are accepted by a sceptical public.
       A government organisation has already been set up to study the safety issues and acceptance of this form of energy generation,as well as where the two nuclear plants should be located.
       "In a year's time they will decide whether to build them or not, but according to the plan, two will be built with 1,000 megawatts each. In 10 years we will build them," said Mr Direk.
       Many parts of the country have been considered as suitable sites for the nuclear plants,but he stressed the government had to focus on safety issues.
       The Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (Egat) would be in charge of producing nuclear energy for this country because it has the skills to do so.
       Now Thailand's power generating capacity is 30,000 megawatts, but according to the long-term power development plan (PDP),this will increased to between 50,000 and 54,000 megawatt in 15 years' time.
       A breakdown of power generation shows that 70% is obtained from natural gas, about 15% from lignite, while hydropower amounts to 7-8%. The country buys 10% of its energy requirements from Laos which has suitable geographical conditions to generate hydroelectric power, and a small amount from Malaysia.
       "In 15 years' time the natural gas portion will decrease and there may be some nuclear power - this is according to the plan - and lignite will increase," said Mr Direk.
       Several countries already meet 20-30% of their energy needs through nuclear power,notably Japan. South Korea too is generating a large amount of nuclear energy, as is China.
       France generates the most nuclear energy,with as much as 70% of its needs being met through nuclear plants. The UK generates about 10-20% of its power from nuclear plants because it is able to buy a substantial amount from France.
       "The US too is partly nuclear but a lot of it is through lignite - much more energy is generated through lignite but it does have some nuclear," he said.
       "At one time people were afraid - for example they were going to build a nuclear plant on the US west coast but it had to be scrapped [due to public pressure]. Today the US east coast has a lot of projects around seven or eight."
       Mr Direk explained that nuclear energy is now seen to be far cleaner because it does not cause greenhouse gas as fossil fuels do.The fear is over the disposal of nuclear waste,but this too has now advanced, and today it is possible to reprocess spent nuclear fuel in a way that allows plutonium to be reused for nuclear fuel but not for nuclear weapons.
       However, in the end radioactive waste has to be disposed off, and the way it is being done in other countries is to carefully bury it deep in the ground.
       "Previously, activists didn't agree with it [nuclear power] but now they do because it doesn't cause greenhouse effect. Many groups agree with it because it's cleaner and doesn't release carbon dioxide."
       In fact, environmentalists are more concerned about the use of lignite to generate power than nuclear. Their concern about lignite even outweighs the heavy use of petroleum today, he added.
       Thailand is not only focusing on nuclear energy for its future needs but also other renewable sources of energy such as solar and wind. Where wind power is concerned Mr Direk mentioned that Denmark is a shining example because it generates so much energy this way that it is able to export some to neighbouring countries.
       It would be possible for Thailand to generate some wind power in future because some parts of the country are extremely windy,including Lop Buri and some areas in the South.
       While the bigger issues of power generation are very important, Mr Direk revealed that the authorities have not forgotten how much energy could be saved at the individual level.With this in mind both the metropolitan and provincial electricity authorities are now willing to buy solar energy from houses that generate it through the installation of solar panels on the roof.
       Householders can now contact both metropolitan and provincial electricity authorities to install a separate meter to sell the solar energy they generate at eight baht a unit,while buying power at a little more than three baht a unit, thus making a profit of five baht a unit.
       "You have to consider whether this is worthwhile, you have to consider whether getting eight baht [a unit] will cover the cost of the solar cells, which will be recovered in seven years. After that, from the eighth or ninth year on, they won't cost you anything so you could then use solar energy at home and not pay three baht a unit - it's free."
       Mr Direk added that the lifespan of solar cells is about 10-20 years and some countries,with Germany at the forefront, are heavily encouraging their use.
       "It started in Thailand a long time ago,but the regulations have just been changed to allow people to sell directly. So sell at eight baht and buy at three baht - that's a profit of five baht."
       Mr Direk added that in these difficult times people could cut their electricity bills if they used less electricity during the peak period from 9am to 10pm. One way would be to run washing machines after 10pm or at weekends.
       "Saving energy is government policy, and it would help decrease the amount of investment the government would have to make.It has to invest, but power consumption only climbs during the peak period when demand is high. Other times they can't sell anything - investing a lot to sell a little is not worthwhile."
       While it is now well known that energysaving bulbs do cut costs, what the majority do not know is that fluorescent tubes can do so too if fitted with electronic ballast. This is able to cut fluorescent power consumption by half - the big fluorescent tubes consume 40 watts, while smaller ones consume 36 watts, and this could come down to 18 watts.
       Mr Direk advised people to check this point when buying fluorescent tubes and although those fitted with electronic ballast are expensive, their cost-saving feature does pay for itself within a year.

PTT, EGAT PLAN TO INVEST BT1.8 TRILLION

       PTT Group and the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (Egat), both major national energy units, yesterday affirmed plans for Bt1.8 trillion of investment from 2010-2014 in order to ensure energy security.
       However, they urged the government to better communicate with local communities if it wanted to see the investments proceed smoothly.
       At the "Energy Solves Thailand's Crisis" seminar hosted by the Energy Ministry, PTT president and CEO Prasert Bunsumpun said his company's investment would further strengthen the country's energy security.
       For absolute security, he said, PTT needed to be a world-class player with a large business size, integrated value chain, strong competitiveness and strength in good governance.
       He added that since its privatisation in 2001, PTT had raced ahead in terms of its development.
       "Yet, as a national energy company, PTT still needs support from the government and the general public. Otherwise, PTT would have difficulties in competing against others. Based on the earnings ratio on sale or assets, PTT is relatively small compared to competitors like ExxonMobil or Malaysia's Petronas," he said.
       While PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP) will invest Bt480 billion in the period, PTT and other subsidiaries will invest a combined Bt1 trillion - and Egat another Bt300 billion.
       Prasert lamented the government's policy that required PTT to shoulder oil price subsidies worth about Bt40 billion last year. Meanwhile, PTT had to subsidise the price of liquefied petroleum gas to the tune of about Bt5 billion, which only weakened the company.
       "In 2008, PTT's net profit totalled US$1.6 billion [Bt53.7 billion] and some social groups said this was too high. Yet, compared to $15 billion at Petronas or $45 billion at ExxonMobil, the profit is small. Meanwhile, PTT is responsible for seeking new energy supplies. Without profits, good governance and government support, how can PTT mobilise funds to finance the expansion?" he said.
       PTTEP chief executive officer Anon Sirisaengtaksin echoed Prasert's point, saying that government support was necessary or projects could be disrupted due to high risks.
       PTTEP's investment plan is aimed at ensuring sufficient supply, as Thailand's oil consumption will rise from 1.7 million barrels per day to 2.7 million in the next 10 years.
       The company now supplies 260,000 barrels a day and is in the process of raising this to 400,000. It is involved in 40 exploration and production projects in 13 countries, with 20 of them under exploration.
       Egat governor Sombat Sarntijaree said his agency's investment would depend on the national power development plan, which is being revised.
       He said it was necessary for Thailand to diversify fuels for power generation and for the government to further educate the public on nuclear power.
       Jiraphol Jirapraditkul, director-general of the Energy Policy and Planning Office, said that at present, local communities and non-government agencies were opposed to fuels like biomass, coal and nuclear.
       He said the situation would pose threats to national energy security, and the government would therefore do its best to communicate with the public - or no investors would dare to commit to energy projects.

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

EGAT, FIRMS INVITED TO MUMBAI

       The Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (Egat) and local energy companies have been asked to join an exhibition in Mumbai, were they can also explore investment opportunities in India.
       Raj Eswaran, organising chairman of Elecrama 2010, said all of the exhibitors already signed on were ready of joint ventures and product transactions. The Thai organisations have shown their strength in power transmission and distribution through expansion into neighbouring countries.
       "We're also looking for opportunities to hold an exhibition here, to respond to Asean's power-transmission and-distribution needs," he told a press conference in Bangkok yesterday.
       The invitation follows the potential expansion of investment and trade between Thailand and India in the wake of free-trade pacts between the countries and between the subcontinent and Asean, Eswaran said.
       This would boost bilateral trade from US$6 billion (Bt200 billion) now to $10 billion next year, while Indian-Asean trade woul dincreasde from $48 billion to $60 billion.
       He said the event would allow Thai operators to find opportunities for power investment in India.
       The Indian economy is expected to grow 8 per cent this year in the face of the global slowdown. Trade and investment in India are expected to triple from $200 billion, and power demand will increase accordingly, offering a huge investment potential for interntional investors, he added.
       Organised by the Indian Electricial and Electronics Manufacturers Association, the world-class Elecrama is held every two year. Prior to the ninth event, set for next January 20-24, the exhibition has generated more than $900 million worth of joint ventures, orders, strategic investment, supply contracts, brand sales and other trade opportunities.
       Next year's event will feature 1,000 exhibitors from 20 countries, including Germany, Spain, China and South Korea. More than 50,000 visitors from 40 countries, including Thailand, are expected.

       The invitation follows the potential expansion of investment and trade in thei wake of FTAs between the two nations.

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

Ministry takes a close look at wind power

       The feasibility of wind power will be studied by an Energy Ministry department as part of plans to reduce Thailand's dependence on imported energy, a senior officials says.
       The Thai Meteorological Department conducted the last study on wind power a decade ago and found that only limited areas in Thailand could make use of wind power to generate electricity due to the technology's low level of development at the time, said Krairit Nilkuha,director-general of the Energy Ministry's Department of Alternative Energy Development and Efficiency (DEDE).
       The state agency now needs a new study to help encourage private investment in wind-power as the DEDE plans to auction concessions, under an independent power producer model, for the technology.
       "Most of Thailand's highland areas are the property of state agencies," he said."So, any projects developed on such land will have to be operated as concessions."
       Silpakorn University has been assigned to conduct the feasibility study which is scheduled to be completed within the first quarter of next year.
       "The old data only found potential sites [for wind power turbines] in the lowlands and near to the coast," he said."However, with new technology, even highland areas that are 800 to 900 metres above sea level, such as mountains and cliffs, can be used to develop projects.We need a new study to confirm the possibility."
       Many of the old wind-power projects failed commercially. Some were only able to operate for a few days every month due to low wind speeds, Mr Krairit said.
       Under Thailand's renewable power development plan for 2007 to 2022, windpower would be developed to produce 115 megawatts of electricity per year within 2011, rising to 375 MW in 2016 and 800 MW in 2022.
       The DEDE will also conduct a feasibility study on solar power in Thailand to reflect recent developments in solar cell technology.
       "Both solar and wind-power should be promoted and developed, either the public or private sector should be gathered to help speed up our progress on renewable energy," he said."We depend too much on imported energy."
       Thailand's current wind-power capacity is just one megawatt per year,according to DEDE, but this is expected to increase to more than 10 MW within 2011 with Ratchaburi Generating Holding Plc's development of new projects in Nakhon Ratchasima and Phetchabun.

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Glow upbeat on Map Ta Phut despite court ruling

       Glow Energy Plc's three ongoing power plant projects worth 60 billion baht in Map Ta Phut remain on track despite concerns that a court ruling may force their clients to suspend operations.
       The SET-listed power producer, however, said its local and foreign creditors have started asking how its projects'future prospects could be dampened by stricter environmental regulations.
       Glow, which is majority-owned by France-based GDF Suez Energy International, targets to secure as many bank loans as possible to finance the 60-billionbaht expenditure required for its three power projects,including a115-megawatt coal-fired power plant set to be operational in December this year.
       "Investors and creditors are concerned about the uncertainties over the Thai regulations that additional requirements might be introduced in the near future,"Suthivong Kongsiri, executive vicepresident and chief financial officer of Glow told the Bangkok Post ."Those criteria might put our (power)business in a tougher situation than before."
       Major clients of Glow are subsidiaries of Siam Cement Group (SCG), US-based Dow Chemical, and Vinythai Plc. SCG's 20 ongoing projects worth 106 billion baht are among 76 projects totalling 400 billion baht that were forced to suspend construction by a Sept 29 Administrative Court ruling.
       "We updated with customers last week and found that nothing has changed.Construction of those projects have continued," Mr Suthivong said, noting that the 115-megawatt (MW) power plant is projected to lift Glow's net profit by 500 million baht in 2010 from this year's target of 4 billion.
       "If their projects cannot proceed, we might have to look into the viability of our coming projects," he said.
       Glow's 382-MW gas-turbine power plant, which is scheduled to be come online in Sept 2011, is another project that could be affected by the Map Ta Phut ruling. The company is also developing a 660-MW coal-fired power plant with operations due to start in Dec 2011 under an independent power producer license with the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand.
       Finansia Syrus Securities said in the worst-case scenario Glow may have to delay its 115-MW project for a year which could lower the power producer's earnings next year by 17% from an estimated 5.1 billion baht.
       The brokerage forecasts Glow to post a net profit of 3.59 billion baht this year on revenue of 32.4 billion. Next year's turnover is projected at about 40.2 billion baht.
       "But that scenario has minimal chance to happen, therefore, we have maintained our annual earning growth for Glow at 31% on average during 2010 to 2012,"FSS said in a recent report.
       Shares of Glow closed yesterday on the Stock Exchange of Thailand at 33.25 baht, down 50 satang, in trade worth 25.79 million baht.

Wednesday, October 7, 2009

Egat unit shifts to services

       With power demand falling, Egat International Co, an overseas investment arm of the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, is shifting its focus to operating and maintenance services for power plant operators.
       The international business subsidiary,established in 2007, oversees all of Egat's investments outside Thailand, said Sutat Patmasiriwat, a deputy governor of the state power utility.
       But plummeting power demand has made Egat International postpone two overseas projects - the 440-megawatt Nam Ngiep hydropower plant in Laos and the Hutgyi hydropower plant in Burma - neither of which have started construction.
       Egat holds both plants' operating licences from their governments.
       To develop its new business focus,Egat International is in talks with the US-based GE Group on conducting a feasibility study into providing operating and maintenance services to privately run power plants.
       Egat is not only looking at the domestic market but has hopes of opportunities across Indochina. The company may also hold discussions with Siemens AG on doing business together. It is also planning to diversify into coal mines,but Mr Sutat declined to give details.
       In June, Egat invested in Egat Diamond Service, a new joint venture in which Egat and the Mitsubishi Group each hold 45% and Ratchaburi Power Generating Holding Plc 10% of the registered capital of 623 million baht.
       It aims to provide gas-turbine generator part repairs, targeting overseas gasfired power plants, starting from 2011.

Friday, October 2, 2009

Wind farms may pay off

       Investment in wind power generation could pay off for Thais, says the Senate's committee on energy.
       Senator Lertrat Ratanawanich,who chairs the committee, said many investors had shown an interest in developing this alternative form of energy.
       The government could help with research and development of technologies to make the most of wind power, he said.
       However, legal barriers facing plans to build wind farms in forest areas were holding back development of the sector.
       Proposals to develop wind energy generation by the government and the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand have been submitted for approval.
       The wind farms, if built here,could produce 1,000 megawatts of energy.
       Once wind energy generation facilities are fully developed, the total output could reach that of a typical nuclear power plant, or 2,000 to 3,000 megawatts of electricity.

PTT, EGAT PLAN TO INVEST BT1.8 TRILLION

       PTT Group and the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (Egat), both major national energy units, yesterday affirmed plans for Bt1.8 trillion of investment from 2010-2014 in order to ensure energy security.
       However, they urged the government to better communicate with local communities if it wanted to see the investments proceed smoothly.
       At the "Energy Solves Thailand's Crisis" seminar hosted by the Energy Ministry, PTT president and CEO Prasert Bunsumpun said his company's investment would further strengthen the country's energy security.
       For absolute security, he said, PTT needed to be a world-class player with a large business size, integrated value chain, strong competitiveness and strength in good governance.
       He added that since its privatisation in 2001, PTT had raced ahead in terms of its development.
       "Yet, as a national energy company, PTT still needs support from the government and the general public. Otherwise, PTT would have difficulties in competing against others. Based on the earnings ratio on sale or assets, PTT is relatively small compared to competitors like ExxonMobil or Malaysia's Petronas," he said.
       While PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP) will invest Bt480 billion in the period, PTT and other subsidiaries will invest a combined Bt1 trillion - and Egat another Bt300 billion.
       Prasert lamented the government's policy that required PTT to shoulder oil price subsidies worth about Bt40 billion last year. Meanwhile, PTT had to subsidise the price of liquefied petroleum gas to the tune of about Bt5 billion, which only weakened the company.
       "In 2008, PTT's net profit totalled US$1.6 billion [Bt53.7 billion] and some social groups said this was too high. Yet, compared to $15 billion at Petronas or $45 billion at ExxonMobil, the profit is small. Meanwhile, PTT is responsible for seeking new energy supplies. Without profits, good governance and government support, how can PTT mobilise funds to finance the expansion?" he said.
       PTTEP chief executive officer Anon Sirisaengtaksin echoed Prasert's point, saying that government support was necessary or projects could be disrupted due to high risks.
       PTTEP's investment plan is aimed at ensuring sufficient supply, as Thailand's oil consumption will rise from 1.7 million barrels per day to 2.7 million in the next 10 years.
       The company now supplies 260,000 barrels a day and is in the process of raising this to 400,000. It is involved in 40 exploration and production projects in 13 countries, with 20 of them under exploration.
       Egat governor Sombat Sarntijaree said his agency's investment would depend on the national power development plan, which is being revised.
       He said it was necessary for Thailand to diversify fuels for power generation and for the government to further educate the public on nuclear power.
       Jiraphol Jirapraditkul, director-general of the Energy Policy and Planning Office, said that at present, local communities and non-government agencies were opposed to fuels like biomass, coal and nuclear.
       He said the situation would pose threats to national energy security, and the government would therefore do its best to communicate with the public - or no investors would dare to commit to energy projects.